National Resource Adequacy Assessment & Flexibility Needs Assessment of the Lithuanian power system for 2028-2035

Artelys supported the Lithuanian TSO in assessing the resilience of the national power system amid rapid renewable deployment, synchronisation with Continental Europe, and the progressive retirement of thermal dispatchable assets. To do so, Artelys carried out a National Resource Adequacy Assessment combined with a Flexibility Needs Assessment over the 2028–2037 horizon, following ENTSO-E and ACER methodological principles.
Artelys first conducted an Economic Viability Assessment to determine which existing and candidate generation and storage assets can be sustained by wholesale market revenues alone, distinguishing viable units from those requiring lifetime extensions or additional support. Building on this capacity mix, Artelys performed Monte-Carlo-based adequacy simulations to evaluate compliance with the 8-hour Loss of Load criterion across the study horizon, complemented by targeted sensitivity analyses on interconnection availability, including HVDC outage scenarios. Artelys further identified remedial thermal capacity needs required to restore adequacy under each scenario.
In parallel, Artelys analysed flexibility needs by quantifying renewable curtailment and assessing how interconnections, batteries, electrolysis, and thermal units contribute to balancing the system, while evaluating the economic viability of additional large-scale storage investments.
This integrated approach allowed Artelys to provide the TSO with a coordinated view of adequacy, flexibility, and investment needs to support the energy transition.