ADEME, the French energy and environment agency has selected Artelys to build and analyse power systems scenarios in coordination with its “Transition(s) 2050” project. Four multi-energy carbon-neutral pathways have been built for France. Artelys has set up a detailed model able to represent power generation, demand dynamics (including flexibility) and internal networks, with infra-national granularity, from 2020 to 2060. System dimensioning and operations have been jointly optimised from 2020 to 2060, with a 5-year timestep, ensuring robustness via hourly granularity over 9 weather scenarios. The simulation results allow to derive the following key findings: the transition to energy mixes more reliant on RES-e leads to a more evenly distributed power generation system compared to today’s situation. In order to limit network reinforcements and the costs of flexibility provision, investments in generation have to be planned jointly with network developments. Notably, commissioning renewables in best-LCOE areas (disregarding network constraints) leads to higher overall costs. Along with the reinforcement of interconnectors and the increase of cross-border exchanges, the development of demand-side flexibility is key to ensure that the power system functions in a cost-efficient manner. Electric vehicles’ smart-charging and electrolysers’ flexible operations, notably, are crucial to adequately integrate renewables. The key modelling assumptions can be found in a dedicated leaflet.

The North Sea is foreseen to play a pivotal role in the decarbonisation of the European economy, with important wind offshore renewable potentials, energy intensive industries close to the shore, and existing gas infrastructures for natural gas that could be refurbished to foster the development of green hydrogen. In this context, the European Commission has selected Artelys, DNV and Trinomics to analyse the visions for the North Sea of the different stakeholders involved.

The key objective of this study was to provide an overview of existing national and regional long-term analyses, assumptions and plans on offshore renewable energy and grids in the North Seas Energy Cooperation (NSEC) countries. The study has identified the common grounds and diverging aspects of transition pathways and their underlying assumptions, while also providing a qualitative discussion of the way the scenario-building and planning methodologies may differ. Finally, the study provides recommendations on aspects that would be important to consider in upcoming scenario-building exercises that aim at shedding light on plausible futures of the North Sea region. These aspects include for example renewable energy sources (RES) potentials assessment, maritime spatial planning, multi-energy considerations, and risk assessment.