Study to support the development of scenarios for EU-wide infrastructure planning and adequacy assessments

Scenarios are key and necessary ingredients to identify future infrastructure needs and to inform the adequacy measures that need to be put in place. The EU-wide Ten-Year Network Development Plans (TYNDPs) and European Resource Adequacy Assessments (ERAAs) are important tools to inform the required evolution of the energy sector and are based on the use of scenarios. Artelys has been selected to study the set of tools and best practices to be followed for the ERAA and TYNDP scenario development processes. The activities included:
(i) Organisation of surveys to all EU gas and electricity TSOs, as well as to all EU NRAs.
(ii) Interviews with various stakeholders involved in the scenario development process (ENTSO-E, ENTSOG, the European Commission, the TYNDP Stakeholder Reference Group, several TSOs).
(iii) Literature review of the documentation related to ERAA and TYNDP scenario building (including ENTSOs’ documentation, regulatory framework, and ACER’s methodologies and guidelines).
(iv) Benchmark of processes followed by six other institutions when developing their scenarios.
This work resulted in a comprehensive report proposing 25 recommendations for improving the TYNDP and ERAA scenario-building processes.