Artelys supported Coénove in carrying out a study aimed at analyzing the relevance of a balanced mix for residential heat production, incorporating more green gas and hybrid heat pumps in France by 2030. This study notably relies on the information available in the Buildings section of the 2023 Forecast Report published by RTE. All analyses conducted are based on detailed modeling of heat demand in France and the electricity supply-demand balance in France and Europe, using the Artelys Crystal Super Grid software.
The first part of the study examines the benefits of a hybrid heat pump compared to an electric heat pump, with operational assumptions revised relative to the 2023 Forecast Report, as well as the impact of considering the link between domestic hot water and heating systems. The results show that, in a highly electrified scenario, installing hybrid heat pumps helps reduce constraints on flexibility needs, while being less costly at the community level and resulting in GHG emissions very close to those induced by the deployment of an air-to-water heat pump.
The second part of the study compares three scenarios that differ in terms of the level of electrification of the heating systems considered and the level of development of the biomethane sector. Among the configurations analyzed, the most favorable mix for the community is the most balanced scenario, which presents a significant but more moderate pace of electrification than the reference scenario and maintains a larger share of gas equipment, combined with greater development of biomethane and hybrid solutions. Furthermore, sensitivity analyses conducted on these scenarios show that a balanced mix is more resilient to the various uncertainties considered.
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