Study on the impact of the National Low Carbon Strategy on electricity system between 2020 and 2050

GRDF, the main gas distribution company in France, has selected Artelys to conduct a study in order to evaluate the impacts of the transformation foreseen by the French “National Low Carbon Strategy” for 2050 on the distribution and transmission electricity grids. Indeed, flows on transmission and distribution grids are meant to change with the deployment of decentralized renewable energies and the massive electrification of consumption in every economic sector (residential heat, industrial processes and transport). The analysis carried out by Artelys relies on a detailed reconstruction of electrical load curves for 2050, an assessment of the evolution of the local peak demand between 2020 and 2050 and the evaluation of the effect of this evolution on the reinforcement needs on distribution grids. For the transmission grid, an optimisation of France generation, flexibilities and inter-regional network is performed to assess the needs for reinforcements. The effect of hybrid systems combining multiple energy vectors (such as hybrid heat pump), which could limit the increase of peak load, is also assessed in the study.