The European Climate Foundation has selected Artelys to investigate the need for new gas infrastructure in the perspective of a Russian gas imports phase-out by 2025. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has driven demands for the European Union to reduce imports of Russian gas as soon as possible. It requires the EU to consider how to best allocate investments in order to reduce the EU’s dependence in a structural way. In this context, Artelys has compared two scenarios: a first strategy prioritizes investments in LNG import capacities, a second one combines energy efficiency measures, renewable deployment and flexibility solutions. The analysis of both scenarios was conducted using the Artelys Crystal Super Grid platform. This study identifies that the implementation of the measures proposed in the Fit-for-55 package would enable the EU to largely exit Russian gas by 2025. It also identifies that additional European clean energy investments provide the best path forward to ensure full security of supply for a Russian gas phase-out. From a total system cost perspective, a clean energy solution scenario is cheaper than a gas-based solution scenario. It also succeeds in reducing CO2 emissions in the long-term.  

ADEME, the French energy and environment agency has selected Artelys to build and analyse power systems scenarios in coordination with its “Transition(s) 2050” project. Four multi-energy carbon-neutral pathways have been built for France. Artelys has set up a detailed model able to represent power generation, demand dynamics (including flexibility) and internal networks, with infra-national granularity, from 2020 to 2060. System dimensioning and operations have been jointly optimised from 2020 to 2060, with a 5-year timestep, ensuring robustness via hourly granularity over 9 weather scenarios. The simulation results allow to derive the following key findings: the transition to energy mixes more reliant on RES-e leads to a more evenly distributed power generation system compared to today’s situation. In order to limit network reinforcements and the costs of flexibility provision, investments in generation have to be planned jointly with network developments. Notably, commissioning renewables in best-LCOE areas (disregarding network constraints) leads to higher overall costs. Along with the reinforcement of interconnectors and the increase of cross-border exchanges, the development of demand-side flexibility is key to ensure that the power system functions in a cost-efficient manner. Electric vehicles’ smart-charging and electrolysers’ flexible operations, notably, are crucial to adequately integrate renewables. The key modelling assumptions can be found in a dedicated leaflet.