The best of statistical forecasting for your business

— In a world in constant and fast changing, the forecaster is increasingly asked to analyze and help understand the business context. The exponential growth of volumes and data sources can help answer these questions while introducing a real technical and organizational challenge.

Artelys Crystal Forecast allows you to generate forecasts or scenarios of extreme reliability on short, medium and long-term horizons. It becomes very easy to automatically use your data feeds, generate forecasts and increase your knowledge of the future!

why Artelys Crystal Forecast ?

Comprehensive

In your information system, Artelys Crystal Forecast became the cockpit of the forecaster.

This is where the forecaster organizes all the stages of the forecasting process, from the data processing to the dissemination of the result, and where he finds all the necessary tools for the production of advanced statistical analyzes.

Powerful

Artelys Crystal Forecast was developed by and for its time series prediction experts who wanted to capitalize their experience and gather their statistical modeling skills in a unique and powerful software.

ACF adapts to datasets with aggregated spatio-temporal or typological granularities as well as large, heterogeneous datasets with fine temporal granularity.

Ergonomic

Organization in sequence of tasks to follow  the forecast procedure.

Connection to your information system

Generation of automatic imports, from your databases or external sources

Simplified export of your results

Provision of a library of tools and models

Possibility to integrate custom scripts

Adjustable

The user interface as well as the workflows are fully configurable so that variables, statistical indicators, visualization screens as well as modeling and parameterization tools can meet your specific business needs..

powerful models

— A whole range of models available

Powerful models, providing forecasts of extreme precision

 

Models proven in many numerical experiments in business context

— A whole range of models available

Powerful models, providing forecasts of extreme precision

 

Models proven in many numerical experiments in business context

— Great possibilities of parametrization to adapt to your context

Choose the type of model : linear or non-parametric multivariate regressions (splines), autoregressive models (S)ARIMAX, neural networks, models with unobservable components…

 

Choose the explanatory variables

 

Calibrate the parameters associated with the model structure

— Great possibilities of parametrization to adapt to your context

Choose the type of model : linear or non-parametric multivariate regressions (splines), autoregressive models (S)ARIMAX, neural networks, models with unobservable components…

 

Choose the explanatory variables

 

Calibrate the parameters associated with the model structure

— Or your own model

Import your own models using scripts.

 

Compatibility with R software : most recent and robust calibration and projection algorithms of the academic community

— Or your own model

Import your own models using scripts.

 

Compatibility with R software : most recent and robust calibration and projection algorithms of the academic community

— Complete tools to validate your model

Statistical indicators for the model validation : statistical criteria(MAPE, RMSE), residue evaluation, autocorrelation analysis

 

Synthetic table representing the model quality :

  • Overall quality of learning
  • Predictive power

Help messages adapted to accompany you in your model updates.

— Complete tools to validate your model

Statistical indicators for the model validation : statistical criteria(MAPE, RMSE), residue evaluation, autocorrelation analysis

 

Synthetic table representing the model quality :

  • Overall quality of learning
  • Predictive power

Help messages adapted to accompany you in your model updates.

a software that adapts to your data

— Define the basic structure of your data:

Geographical Analysis

Generation of forecasts at any geographical scale, from from the region section to the national and transnational level

Season, calendar and climate effects

Visualization and materialization of their interactions thanks to an automatic indexing

Effects of exogenous variables

Quantification, classification and visualization of interactions between the main effects (cross analysis, identification of variances and covariances …)

Segmentation of the client portfolio

Artelys Crystal Forecast integrates your current operational / business segmentation and offers to complement it with quantitative clustering

Bottom‑up modeling

Representation of scenarios of techno-economic evolution

eg : Typology / Usage / Equipment segmentation to understand energy demand (long-term modeling)

easy and efficient construction of your DATA projects

— Manage your data rigorously

Automatic imports from your own databases or external data sources

 

Implementation of a relational structure :

  • Representation of the relational links between your variables
  • Reconciliation at each aggregation node

An available and editable script library to correct, process or transform your data.

 

Centralization of data in Artelys Crystal Database Manager : historical, processed, planned or backcasted data, as well as all your explanatory variables

— Create and organize your task sequences to define your forecasting process

Data management and analysis

Model calibration

Forecasts and scenarios generation

Visualization and reconciliation

Visualization of the flow of the forecast procedure

 

Automation of repetitive and time-consuming tasks to save time for analysis and modeling

 

Use of the library scripts or your own scripts for processing and correcting data

 

Creation of reports (pdf or excel) or web publication of a dashboard summarizing the results

 

Automatic export to CSV / Excel or other Crystal applications

Visualization of the flow of the forecast procedure

 

Automation of repetitive and time-consuming tasks to save time for analysis and modeling

 

Use of the library scripts or your own scripts for processing and correcting data

 

Creation of reports (pdf or excel) or web publication of a dashboard summarizing the results

 

Automatic export to CSV / Excel or other Crystal applications

Artelys Crystal Server Server can be used, in a complementary way, within a client-server architecture to plan and automate the various operational procedures or to deport the heavy computations associated with the constant growth of data volumes.

 

Artelys Crystal Forecast can also be linked to web interfaces to publish results, dashboards or reports..

countless applications

— Improve your risk management procedures by reducing your short-term errors

Make your buying operations in the marketplace efficiently and cost-effectively

 

Artelys Crystal Forecast is used by any market player who buys or sells power and is financially responsible for deviations in the network it creates. 

Our solution allows positioning on intraday, day-ahead and forwards contracts by minimizing forecasting errors that can lead to significant deviations from actual results and represent significant operational costs.

Anticipate operational risks and failures

 

In regulated contexts, the anticipation of tension between demand and energy supply is an essential dimension of day-to-day network management. Artelys Crystal Forecast supports you in anticipation of these potential defects related to the combination of simultaneous effects and participates in the implementation of appropriate procedures such as demand response or temporary reorganization of the network and allows you to avoid triggering expensive procedures. 

— Improve your risk management procedures by reducing your short-term errors

Make your buying operations in the marketplace efficiently and cost-effectively

 

Artelys Crystal Forecast is used by any market player who buys or sells power and is financially responsible for deviations in the network it creates. 

Our solution allows positioning on intraday, day-ahead and forwards contracts by minimizing forecasting errors that can lead to significant deviations from actual results and represent significant operational costs.

Anticipate operational risks and failures

 

In regulated contexts, the anticipation of tension between demand and energy supply is an essential dimension of day-to-day network management. Artelys Crystal Forecast supports you in anticipation of these potential defects related to the combination of simultaneous effects and participates in the implementation of appropriate procedures such as demand response or temporary reorganization of the network and allows you to avoid triggering expensive procedures. 

— Represent medium-term uncertainty on the evolution of demand

For the management of hydraulic reservoirs, storage capacities or “take or pay” contracts, a medium consumption scenario is not sufficient to define suitable medium-term strategies.

With Artelys Crystal Forecast, you can simulate hundreds of scenarios from temperature scenarios and economic evolution assumptions to test the robustness of your system and adapt it. 

— Create long-term demand scenarios for strategic investments

The projection of energy demand, subject to profound structural changes in terms of efficiency, flexible technologies or mix of uses, all combined with macroeconomic assumptions is a subject of prime importance for strategic planning at the horizons of 10, 20 or 30 years.

 

Artelys Crystal Forecast allows you to describe and implement a bottom-up structure of your data and to configure evolution scenarios to perform technical-economic simulations and then use them as input data of a capacity optimization or a strategic study on the impact of policy decisions.

— Create long-term demand scenarios for strategic investments

The projection of energy demand, subject to profound structural changes in terms of efficiency, flexible technologies or mix of uses, all combined with macroeconomic assumptions is a subject of prime importance for strategic planning at the horizons of 10, 20 or 30 years.

 

Artelys Crystal Forecast allows you to describe and implement a bottom-up structure of your data and to configure evolution scenarios to perform technical-economic simulations and then use them as input data of a capacity optimization or a strategic study on the impact of policy decisions.

— Managing the evolution of the behavior of your client portfolio

Any company offering a service to a customer portfolio needs to anticipate its structural evolution and determine the consequences on consumption in order to better adapt resources and means of supply.

 

Application example :

– By a telecom company to monthly order the number of resources to allocate to call centers taking into account the diversity of requests and their seasonality.

– By medium and large-scale retailers wishing to have precise forecasts of sales by type of product or purchasing sector, for each segment of their portfolio in order to improve their reporting and financial planning and optimize inventories. 

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